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Bird Flu Facts... are you ready?

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pandemickb0.png

 

Here's an update on Avian Influenza H5N1 from the World Health Organization (W.H.O.)

 

It is important to realize that there is some debate going on about whether or not we should be at a higher level of Pandemic alert. This is really important to me, because I know how this flu attacks. It doesn't settle in the upper Respiratory tract like the flu you're used to, instead, it takes it's foothold in the lungs. It causes a huge inflammatory response that deactivates your surfactant (the slippery substance in your lungs that helps keep your alveoli open between each breath) wtihout it, you have wide spread alveolar collapse, loss of lung volume, and seriously decreased area for gas exchange to occur. You go into severe ARDS (Adult Respiratory Distress syndrome) and can die within days. More than 50% of the people who have caught this flu from birds, have died within days.

 

Look at numbers 3 4 and 5 on the alert. This is where the debate is. Those areas are very subjective, and open to a lot of interpretation. Up until a few days ago, I was under the impression that this flu had not mutated to the point to be passed from person to person. But I was wrong. There is at least ONE documented un-argued case where it was passed from a daughter to a mother. THIS is a significant fact. It has begun to mutate.

 

I'm going to show you what I've learned, and let you make up your own mind about the level of alert we need to be at.

 

Remember... flu season is upon us. This flu has already shown that it can move from person to person. None of us can comprehend the seriousness of this situation until it happens. and it WILL happen. That is the only thing all the experts can agree on.

 

whatever flu shot you take this year will NOT protect you from this flu.  Only contact/droplet precautions will help.

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Guest taken by the wind...

Avian influenza – situation in Indonesia – update 17

2 October 2007 The Ministry of Health of Indonesia has announced a new case of human infection of H5N1 avian influenza. A 21-year-old male from Jakarta Province developed symptoms on 18 September, was hospitalized on 25 September and died in hospital on 28 September. The investigation found that the case was an egg seller in a traditional market. All of the contacts remain healthy, where they will continue to be monitored for ten days after their last contact with the case.

 

Of the 107 cases confirmed to date in Indonesia, 86 have been fatal.

 

Avian influenza – situation in Indonesia – update 18

8 October 2007

The Ministry of Health of Indonesia has announced a new case of human infection of H5N1 avian influenza. A 44-year-old female from Pekanbaru City in Riau Province developed symptoms on 1 October and died on 6 October. A team is currently investigating the case to determine the source of her exposure. All of the contacts are being monitored but all remain healthy.

 

Avian influenza – situation in Indonesia – update 19

12 October 2007The Ministry of Health of Indonesia has announced a new case of human infection of H5N1 avian influenza. A 12-year-old male from Tangerang District in Banten Province developed symptoms on 30 September and is currently in hospital. The investigation team found that he had direct contact with dead chicken near his school in the days before his illness.

 

Of the 109 cases confirmed to date in Indonesia, 87 have been fatal.

17 October 2007

Avian influenza-situation in indonesia - update 20

The Ministry of Health of Indonesia has announced the death of a previously confirmed case of H5N1 infection. The 12-year-old male from Tangerang District in Banten Province died on 13 October.

 

Of the 109 cases confirmed to date in Indonesia, 88 have been fatal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Two generations of spread possible in Indonesia H5N1 cases

Jim Wappes  Associate Managing Editor

 

May 24, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – For the first time, evidence suggests that the H5N1 avian influenza virus may have passed from one person to another and on to a third, according to a World Health Organization (WHO) official.

 

Referring to the extended-family case cluster in Indonesia, the WHO's Maria Cheng told the Canadian Press (CP) yesterday, "This is the first time we have seen cases that have gone beyond one generation of human-to-human spread."

 

The WHO said in an online statement yesterday that analysis of viruses from patients in the cluster had shown no evidence of changes that could lead to efficient human-to-human transmission. But another WHO official expressed serious concern about the cluster.

 

Peter Cordingley, spokesman for the WHO's Western Pacific region, quoted in a Reuters report today, said, "This is the most significant development so far in terms of public health. We have never had a cluster as large as this. We have not had in the past what we have here, which is no explanation as to how these people became infected [in the first place]. We can't find sick animals in this community, and that worries us."

 

CDC director not alarmed 

 

 

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Is there a vaccine to protect people from some strains of the H5N1 virus?

 

Yes. On April 17, 2007, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced its approval of the first vaccine to prevent human infection with one strain of the avian influenza (bird flu) H5N1 virus. The vaccine, produced by sanofi pasteur, Inc., has been purchased by the federal government for the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile; it will be distributed by public-health officials if needed. This vaccine will not be made commercially available to the general public. Other H5N1 vaccines are being developed by other companies against different H5N1 strains. For more information about the sanofi pasteur, Inc. vaccine, visit http://www.fda.gov/bbs/topics/NEWS/2007/NEW01611.html. For information about other H5N1 and pandemic flu vaccine research activities visit http://www.pandemicflu.gov/research/index.html#vresearch.

 

What is the benefit of the FDA-approved H5N1 vaccine produced by sanofi pasteur Inc?

 

The H5N1 vaccine approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on April 17, 2007, was developed as a safeguard against the possible emergence of an H5N1 pandemic virus.  However, since the H5N1 virus is not a pandemic virus  since it does not transmit efficiently from person to person, the H5N1 vaccine is being held in stockpiles  rather than being used by the general public .  This vaccine aids H5N1 preparedness efforts in case an H5N1 pandemic virus were to emerge. 

 

From:

 

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/qa.htm

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Raising the pandemic alert level?

 

The Indonesian cluster has triggered talk about the possibility of the WHO's changing its pandemic alert status from phase 3 to phase 4 on its 6-phase scale, with phase 6 being a full-blown pandemic. A WHO task force would have to meet and make this decision.

 

"Right now," said the WHO's Cheng in a Reuters story today, "it does not look like the task force will need to meet immediately, but this is subject to change, depending on what comes out of Indonesia."

 

But the WHO's pandemic alert system lacks specific criteria for elevating the alert level, according to Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, which publishes the CIDRAP Web site.

 

"I'm personally confused about the difference in what a phase 3 and phase 4 alert level is," he said today. "The WHO has not clearly described the difference.

 

"That's important. I'm personally aware of a number of companies that have pegged certain levels of their pandemic flu plan based on a change from phase 3 to phase 4. And I'm not sure a change in the alert level would warrant a change in pandemic planning."

 

The WHO Global Influenza Preparedness Plan (see link below) defines phase 3 as "human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact."

 

Phase 4 is characterized by "small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission, but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans."

 

The WHO plan further states, "The distinction between phase 3, phase 4, and phase 5 is based on an assessment of the risk of a pandemic. . . . Factors may include rate of transmission, geographical location and spread, severity of illness, presence of genes from human strains (if derived from an animal strain), and/or other scientific parameters."

 

News editor Robert Roos contributed to this article.

 

See also:

 

WHO's May 23 Indonesia update

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_23/en/index.html

 

WHO Global Influenza Preparedness Plan

 

 

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Guest taken by the wind...

~ there is no way that there will be enough vaccine to protect against the first, or even probably the second wave of this Pandemic. They are still saying that the virus isn't capable of going effectively from person to person, but reports from rural communities in Asia are saying something different. Those stockpiles will be used by the rich politicians over here, and probably by their families first before we ever see them for public distribution. That is against ONE strain. They have no idea what the strain will be that finally leaps ahead of the others.

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Dr. Alexander was a member of a committee on immunization practices that was advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention when swine flu was first reported at Fort Dix, N.J., in 1976.

 

The outbreak caused public health officials to fear a national epidemic. More than 200 soldiers were mildly infected with the influenza A virus, and 13 were hospitalized. Dr. Alexander advised caution and argued for the stockpiling of flu vaccine, without embarking on vaccinations until it could be shown that the flu had spread beyond Fort Dix. But the committee decided to move quickly to cut off potential contagion, and about 40 million Americans received the vaccine.

 

A small percentage of those treated developed Guillain-Barré syndrome, a poliolike disorder that causes paralysis, and some patient deaths were linked to the vaccinations.

 

The devastating consequences of a flu epidemic did not occur, and the effort to use the vaccine nationwide was halted by the end of 1976.

Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg, president of the Institute of Medicine at the National Academy of Sciences, said that Dr. Alexander "posed very important questions about how to proceed with swine flu, and they turned out to be the right questions."

 

With Richard E. Neustadt, Dr. Fineberg wrote a book, "The Epidemic That Never Was: Policy Making in the Swine Flu Scare" (1983).

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23 OCTOBER 2007 | GENEVA -- Recent scientific advances and increased vaccine manufacturing capacity have prompted experts to increase their projections of how many pandemic influenza vaccine courses can be made available in the coming years.

 

 

Last spring, the World Health Organization (WHO) and vaccine manufacturers said that about 100 million courses of pandemic influenza vaccine based on the H5N1 avian influenza strain could be produced immediately with standard technology. Experts now anticipate that global production capacity will rise to 4.5 billion pandemic immunization courses per year in 2010.

 

"With influenza vaccine production capacity on the rise, we are beginning to be in a much better position vis-à-vis the threat of an influenza pandemic," Dr Marie-Paule Kieny, Director of the Initiative for Vaccine Research at WHO, said today. "However, although this is significant progress, it is still far from the 6.7 billion immunization courses that would be needed in a six month period to protect the whole world."

 

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2007/pr60/en/index.html

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I want to applaud Taken for bringing this issue to the forums.  I have been aware of the danger of a pandemic for quite a few years.  Wastewater workers usually run the risk of catching everything, if not first, then not far behind the first.  I am posting some information that she may not have seen, and serves to illustrate how very complicated just about every public health problem is.

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They are still saying that the virus isn't capable of going effectively from person to person, but reports from rural communities in Asia are saying something different.

 

They probably have a criterion for what "effectively" means.  It may mean transmission to 2, 3, 4, or 5 people conclusively under a set standard of conditions.  My perusal has seen mostly people transmitting who were in very close contact with patient 0.  I would also suspect that the locals may be picking up cases where the "transmitted to" person hasn't been tested or tested incorrectly.  Every lab makes mistakes.

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Guest taken by the wind...

23 OCTOBER 2007 | GENEVA -- Recent scientific advances and increased vaccine manufacturing capacity have prompted experts to increase their projections of how many pandemic influenza vaccine courses can be made available in the coming years.

 

 

Last spring, the World Health Organization (WHO) and vaccine manufacturers said that about 100 million courses of pandemic influenza vaccine based on the H5N1 avian influenza strain could be produced immediately with standard technology. Experts now anticipate that global production capacity will rise to 4.5 billion pandemic immunization courses per year in 2010.

 

"With influenza vaccine production capacity on the rise, we are beginning to be in a much better position vis-à-vis the threat of an influenza pandemic," Dr Marie-Paule Kieny, Director of the Initiative for Vaccine Research at WHO, said today. "However, although this is significant progress, it is still far from the 6.7 billion immunization courses that would be needed in a six month period to protect the whole world."

 

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2007/pr60/en/index.html

 

~ this is what worries me nurk... If the virus mutated in two months (and it is biologically possible for this to happen) where are we in terms of being able to produce the 6.7 billion immunizations that would be needed within six months?

 

They're saying that in 2010, we'll be able to produce 4.5 billion... (if we're lucky, and our vaccine producing companies can stay afloat in an unsteady economy)

 

The fact is, viruses are some bad ass enemy predators (think of them as aliens) they don't really fit into any normal kingdom of living things on earth... (except their own)

 

they can hide for years inside of a reservoir animal keeping their numbers down.. not making that animal sick or symptomatic... but spreading to all animals within that species. Then when they find a suitable host... they can genetically mutate so fast to enable themselves to adapt and survive like no other living thing on this planet. They get better and better at transferring themselves from one host to another with each jump they make. They can't even move on their own, or even live outside of another animal for any length of time, and yet... they can move across the world with ease. :scared:

 

 

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I think the crucial question is:  yes they can mutate in two months, but it also could take decades.  Mutation is a crapshoot.  One other thing that has always stood us in good stead.

 

A deadly disease is an unsuccessful disease.  Look at the world wide numbers for the cold virus as opposed to H5N1.  Now granted, the difference in transmission efficacy weighs in here, but I think it likely that the human transmission has been mutated to, and it killed the individual before he/she could pass it on.  This stuff is happening in a remote section of the world, and I think there's a reason for that.  Poor public health, poor hygiene, superstition, and many other factors come into play with a disease transmission and survival.  There could be a whole clan die in some remote region,  and that's where that attempt of the virus to cross the avian-human line died (this time) as well.

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The best thing we could do for those people would be to immunize every one of them with the seasonal vaccine killed virus, to keep any possibility, (or lower it significantly, anyway) for those standard flus that do transmit and the H5N1's from coming into contact.  When these two viruses are present at the same time, exchange of genetic material could occur.  Strictly speaking, that isn't a mutation.  This brings to mind something else as well, a mutation almost always kills the individual that it occurs in.  In point of fact, the mutation that would allow H5N1 to move from human to human would have to occur in a very specific way.  It is also not impossible for the same mutation that allows it to transmit might ameliorate its lethality.  Humans have survived pandemics for 3 million years, and our mammalian forbears for many years beyond that...thank heavens those protections exist within our immune systems today.  H5N1 is merely the latest.

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One more comment.  I haven't really heard too much about the people (50%) with modern healthcare, who survive.  I noticed that the official numbers for indonesia were 89/110?  I suspect that the 50% is maybe coming from somewhere that there is a higher survival rate?  What accounts for these people's survival?  Can they catch it again?  Is there something odd with their physiology?

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~ don't know. You can't get much info. online about it. I'm sure healthcare comes into play. But there's only so many ventilators available and healthcare workers etc.

 

At least I'm in the numbers of when to call it an epidemic... "when five or more healthcare workers DIE from contact with someone wtih H5N1" then they may be moving towards an epidemic... 8|

 

nice to know where I stand in the grand scheme of things. happy097.gif   (that's why I do my research...) :whistle: I'm a front-line at risk person. LOL!

 

I hate to tell them, but by the time folks start coming into the hospital... it's pretty much gonna be here. :rofl:

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~ Here's some more controverial stuff...

 

In 1999 they revised the "When to start getting worried" Alert system....  WHY?

 

Prior to 1999, the World would be between level 4 and level 5. Probably closer to level 5.

 

here's the PRE 1999 levels defined. (level 6 being Pandemic)

 

level 4 =  Small clusters with limited human to human transmission, but spread is localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

 

level 5 =  Larger clusters suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible.

 

We KNOW the virus is transmissible between humans. In 1998, we would be at level 5 or higher.

 

So why are we only at level 3... ?

 

http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/GIP_2005_5Eweb.pdf

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One more comment.  I haven't really heard too much about the people (50%) with modern healthcare, who survive.  I noticed that the official numbers for indonesia were 89/110?  I suspect that the 50% is maybe coming from somewhere that there is a higher survival rate?  What accounts for these people's survival?  Can they catch it again?   Is there something odd with their physiology?

 

It might be that the other numbers are coming from those people who caught the virus from an infected bird.

 

maybe the virus that is learning to move from person to person is more lethal. It does seem that the people who do catch it from another person die.

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Guest taken by the wind...

WHO To Change Pandemic Alert Level Criteria

 

zogger Sun, 28 May 2006 20:47:52 PDT Health and Medicine

 

"Because of confusion over the recent large familial avian flu cluster in Indonesia, WHO is set to change the way they rank the pandemic threat level "phase", which currently sits at 3 with 6 being the highest, a full global pandemic. The debate is hinging on the fact that by the past criteria, the Indonesian case should be triggering a 4 rating phase, but they don't see it as significant enough, so they will be altering the way they rank cases now. They say that they are working this out, because this sort of ranking has never been done before on a global scale.

 

"The acting head of the WHO's global influenza program says the rewrite will spell out more clearly how the agency thinks a novel influenza virus would behave during the different phases leading up to a pandemic."..more thereed: not significant enough — except to that Indonesian family that just got decimated. I guess it is a hard call, and I am not so sure that that family is the only instance where this has happened. Does anyone remember from early last year that little story that disappeared about a Chinese village with a lot of people with "flu-like" illness" just being cut off from the rest of the nation there and a lot of troops sent in, then...silence? I looked for a long time, never could find a follow up to it.....Seemed a significant story at the time, then nada....

Which reminds me! That "ebola at heathrow" story, the one I was *careful* to put a question mark in the article title last week (glad I did that, too). I wrote virgin airlines and asked them about it, got two emails back saying "they would look into it", then nothing else, so I guess it was bogus. Scratch the Mirror as a news source!"

 

~ there are a lot of journalists who are also getting the feeling that the world's leaders are sitting on their butts in response to this threat...  :whistle:

 

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I remember the days when no one was sure whether you could get aids out of sewage.  It's pretty common when cleaning out a clogged pump, even with gloves on, to slash a finger.  That's an ugly sight, blood oozing through sewage.  Oh yes, we worried.  Not to mention that exposes us to every other darn nasty bacteria, virus, and prion on the planet.

 

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Guest taken by the wind...

  ~ Speaking of News Stories that just sort of disappear...    :unsure:

 

Dozens in Mexican city ill with suspected avian flu

Raises concerns over international implications of epidemic

 

Posted: September 28, 2007

1:00 a.m. Eastern

© 2007 WorldNetDaily.com

Dozens of people in a Mexican city are gravely ill with what is being treated as a possible outbreak of avian flu, according to a new report from a Spanish-language website. According to El Universal, authorities in a neighborhood in Guanajuato say 45 patients have been given medical attention at the area's hospital after they reported symptoms including extreme headaches, stomachaches, vomiting and diarrhea.

The cases have developed over the last two weeks and "feel [like] death," according to Silvia Villalobos, one of the victims who spoke to El Universal correspondent Xochitl Alvarez in Spanish.

(Story continues below)

Top of Form 1

Bottom of Form 1

A spokesman for the regional general hospital, Ernesto Castle, said he does not know the cause of the problems, but officials are looking at an avian flu virus, which is transmitted by birds and is similar to botulism, as a source.

He reported at least 45 patients have been given emergency room medical attention, while others went to their private physicians for help.

One man reported his wife was hospitalized after the symptoms hit, waking her with fever and chills, before she fainted.

Guadalupe Gomez, a resident of the area, said her concern was that the epidemic was being carried by flies attracted by leather processed in the tanning industry, which includes leathers from other nations.

City spokesman Jose Eusebio Olague said officials have directed that barricades be set up so the sick do not spread the infections even further.

Traditional causes for fever and chills essentially have been ruled out by various tests, officials said. Sources in the air, water and other industries have been eliminated as a cause, officials said.

 

(I  have Looked for updates on this article for a few weeks....  I'm glad I saved it. If anyone can find an update to this article please post it.)  :unsure:

 

 

(This type of threat was addressed at the recent Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America summit in Canada, where officials released a plan that establishes U.N. law along with regulations by the World Trade Organization and World Health Organization as supreme over U.S. law during a pandemic. It also sets the stage for militarizing the management of continental health emergencies.   

The "North American Plan for Avian & Pandemic Influenza" was finalized at the SPP summit last month in Montebello, Quebec.

At the same time, the U.S. Northern Command, or NORTHCOM, has created a webpage dedicated to avian flu and has been running exercises in preparation for the possible use of U.S. military forces in a continental domestic emergency involving avian flu or pandemic influenza.

With virtually no media attention, in 2005 President Bush shifted U.S. policy on avian flu and pandemic influenza, placing the country under international guidelines not specifically determined by domestic agencies.

The policy shift was formalized Sept. 14, 2005, when Bush announced a new International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza to a High-Level Plenary Meeting of the U.N. General Assembly)

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I think if they had tested positive for H5N1, or H7 or H9, we would have heard about it.  The news would have went out to doctors around that area, and they would never have been able to keep it a secret...in my opinion.

 

To be honest, I didn't hear anything in that article about breathing problems.  After two weeks, half of them should have been dead.

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nurkerool, your faith in the "powers that be" is touching!  But do you REALLY think they'd admit that the avian flu is spreading?  :whistle:

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Guest taken by the wind...

~ Would we know about it? have you "heard" of any of this stuff before today? :smoke:

 

We have Two stories about villages coming down with flu-like symptoms... One in China early last year and one in Mexco this year. In both cases, the miliatry was sent in and barricades were set up.

 

In both cases, there were no follow up stories. That I could find.

 

It all comes down to your belief system. Either you trust those in power, who hold all the knowledge... or you try to figure stuff out yourself.

 

I don't have the luxury of waiting around for my government to tell me it's time to take precautions. :nono: I know that most hospitals won't recognize what's walking into their doors until its too late.

 

In my years as a healthcare worker, I've been exposed to several life-threatening diseases just doing my job. We don't KNOW what's wrong with people when they come in. Most lab work takes 24 to 48 hours to isolate pathogens. By then people like me have been Highly exposed... (who do you think collects all of those sputum samples, and blood work?)

 

I've been exposed to Neisseria Meningitis... T.B. and dozens of pneumonias through the years before ANYONE was ever diagnosed. They don't call you at home, they just leave you a note in your department... it could be a week later before you go see Occupational Health. I am exposed to MRSA on a daily basis... so I've learned to be informed. Because NOBODY I work with ever knows what's going on.

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This was in a current events thread that started with the article you have below.  I don't think the translation is very good, and I'm not sure it's the same incident.

 

 

machinetranslation

 

The virus detected in Guanajuato is dengue: State Ssa

 

Notimex/on Day Line

 

09 27 2007

 

The depenedencia informed that the suffering presented/displayed by several people, diagnosed like a strange disease, is dengue classic and that there is confirmed 31 cases in the city of Leon.

 

Leon, Gto. The suffering that several people presented/displayed this week in the city, diagnosed in principle like a strange disease, is dengue classic, and it is not controlled, reason why it could propagate, indicated the Secretariat of state Health.

 

In press conference, the holder of the dependency, Jorge Armando Aguirre Torres, said that until the moment they have themselves confirmed 31 cases of ill people with dengue, in the colonies Duraznal and Obregón, who comprise of the District of Above, and in the Woods of Ibarrilla, to the north of the city.

 

“We knew that it was a virus, we had the name and we required of the last names, today already we have the last names and we want to inform to them, he is dengue and it is in the municipality of Leon”, limited.

 

It showed that at the moment the virus is not controlled, and the eradication of the mosquito that propagates it will depend on the work that is made between the society and the sector health.

 

For that reason, it said, “we are working in a sanitary wall, nebulizando, to be able to finish with mosco and abatizando to eliminate the larvae”.

 

It clarified that, at a first moment, the presence of dengue refused because the laboratory tests had not confirmed it because the period of incubation of the virus takes between seven and 14 days.

 

The diagnosis was confirmed by the National Institute of Diagnosis and Reference Epidemiologist, who emitted the results of the samples that took with the 64 detected cases, of which, 31 infected people were only confirmed.

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