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thats a case fatality rate of 18%

 

to put that in perspective, the 1918 Pandemic has been cited as the most devistating epidemic in recorded History. That year more people died of flu than died in WWI, or even during the Bubonic plague. The 1918 pandemic had a case fatality rate of a little over 2.5%. Regular seasonal flu has a case fatality rate of a little less than 1% usually.

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~ 96 confirmed cases in China as of today with 18 deaths. Keep in mind that every confirmed case is receiving antiviral medication within that window of opportunity to treat... because of enhanced surveilance. They have to be. It wouldn't be ethical not to treat.

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With 3 to 5 of more new cases a day, they still think this is only animal to human transfer and not human to human?       

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If that's the case they haven't yet contained it and so it's only a matter of time before it mutates and transfers human to human, either way the precautions aren't in place to remove many of the potential risks as possible!

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"All of the sequences were closely related to recent H7N9 sequences from the Shanghai area and all had H7 Q226L.  However, as seen in prior sequences, both of the human sequences had a change in PB2 that has been associated with mammalian adaptation, which for the above two cases was E627K.  Similarly, as seen in prior avian sequences, the PB2 was wild type at positions 627 and 701 for the environemntal sample.

 

The presence of PB2 E627K or D701N in all 7 human PB2 sequences and the absence the polymorphisms in the 5 avian sequences raises concerns that the human cases are not due to avian sequences which lack those polymorphisms.  However, E627K is present in waterfowl infected with clade 2.2 H5N1 bird flu and E627K has also been identified in an H7N9 wild bird sequence from South Korea, A/wild bird/Korea/A3/11, raising the possibility that waterfowl are linked to the human cases.

 

However, that linkage may be indirect and involve a mammalian intermediate, such as swine, canine, or feline or simply involve human to human transmission, which is largely missed because of limited testing of mild cases.

All of the seven human sequences released to date have been from fatal or critical cases, so the presence of absence of PB2 E627K or D701N in mild cases is unclear. 

 

Release of PB2 sequences fro milder cases would be useful."

 

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04221301/H7N9_E627K_Concerns.html

 

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If that's the case they haven't yet contained it and so it's only a matter of time before it mutates and transfers human to human, either way the precautions aren't in place to remove many of the potential risks as possible!

 

~ if it wasn't adapted to people, I seriously doubt there would be THAT many confirmed cases so fast. There may be a lot of mild cases flying under the radar as well. It's hard to find a virus that can only be confirmed by PCR testing. That's a very expensive complicated test that requires a couple of days to confirm. There's no rapid flu test that can detect it. Only the sickest patients are tested... and close contacts who are symptomatic. That's ONLY my opinion though. It's not fact.

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China hadn't released any new cases for a couple of days, then yesterday this shows up on the World Health Organization website:

 

Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update

 

29 APRIL 2013 - As of 29 April 2013 (16:30CET), the National Health and Family Planning Commission, China notified WHO of an additional 17 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus.

 

The patients include:

 

a 38-year-old man from Zhejiang province who became ill on 18 April 2013;

an 80-year-old man from Fujian province who became ill on 17 April 2013;

an 80-year-old man from Jiangxi province who became ill on 21 April 2013;

a 31-year-old woman from Jiangxi province who became ill on 23 April 2013;

a four-year-old boy from Shandong province who became ill on 27 April 2013;

a 54-year-old man from Hunan province who became ill on 15 April 2013;

a 64- year-old woman from Hunan province who became ill on 14 April 2013;

a 38-year-old man from Zhejiang province who became illness on 17 April 2013;

a 49-year-old man from Jiangsu province who became ill on 17 April 2013;

a 36-year-old man from Jiangsu province who became ill on 19 April 2013;

a 60-year-old man from Jiangsu province who became ill on 8 March 2013;

a 65-year-old man from Fujian province who became ill on 18 April 2013;

a 69-year-old man from Jiangxi province who became ill on 17 April 2013;

a 76- year- old woman from Jiangxi province who became ill on 19 April 2013;

a 60-year- old woman from Zhejiang province who became ill on 17 April 2013;

a 50-year-old woman from Zhejiang province who became ill on 18 April 2013; and

a 56-year-old man from Henan province who became ill 17 April 2013.

Additionally, two patients earlier reported from Jiangsu province died.

 

To date, a total of 126 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus including 24 deaths have been reported to WHO. Contacts of the confirmed cases are being closely monitored.

 

The authorities in the affected locations continue to implement prevention and control measures.

 

Investigations into the possible sources of infection and reservoirs of the virus are ongoing. Until the source of infection has been identified and controlled, it is expected that there will be further cases of human infection with the virus.

 

So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. Really?  :blink:

 

WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it recommend that any travel or trade restrictions be applied.  so at what point does the world health organization plan on containing this virus? They do not know how these people are being infected, it's got a fairly high fatality rate for flu, there's no vaccine, and it's showing resistance to antivirals. It has the genetic make-up of a virus that is adapted to mammals. And despite their claims, some virologists say there IS evidence of human to human transmission.

 

The key here being "Trade" restrictions.

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Evidence For Sustained H7N9 Human Transmission

Recombinomics Commentary 03:15

April 30, 2013

 

The Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention has released full sequences from two H7N9 bird flu cases, A/Zhejiang/1/2013 (37M) and A/Zhejiang/2/2013 (64M), and they are to be commended for the rapid release of these important sequences.  The age, gender, and collection dates suggest these sequences originated from the cases that generated A/Hangzhou/1/2013 (by the Hangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention) and A/Zhejiang/DTID-ZJU01/2013 (by the State Key Laboratory of Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases at Zhejiang University).  The recent sequences confirmed that the earlier case (37M) had H7 L226I and PB2 E627K, while the second case (64M) had H7 Q226L and PB2 D701N, all of which are mammalian adaptation markers.  Both of these cases were fatal and detail was provided in the recent Lancet paper  These sequences were from Patient #1 and Patient #3, respectively (see map).

 

The recently released avian sequences had Q226L, which had not been reported previously in H7  (or H5).  However, Q226L has become common in avian H9N2 sequences and the close relationship of the six H7N9 internal genes to H9N2 sequences suggests these internal genes were compatible with Q226L in avian hosts.  However, the PB2 changes (E627K and D701N) have not been identified in any of the recent H7N9 sequences from live markets in and around Shanghai, and some have speculated that these mammalian adaptations happened in the human cases.  However, the presence of E627K in six of the seven human cases, and the absence in any of the avian cases does not support the repeated acquisition E627K in each human case.  The presence of L226I, another mammalian adaptation, in the two sequences from the earlier case (who has been described as 39M, 38M, and 37M) raises serious questions about a recent avian source, since this adaptation has not been reported in any of the avian sequences.

 

Moreover, the recently released  H7 sequence from a Jiangsu case (45M), A/Jiangsu/01/2013, also has L226I, and the H7 sequence is identical to A/Hangzhou/1/2013 and A/Zhejiang/1/2013.  Although the PB2 sequence from A/Jiangsu/01/2013 has not been released, N9 and MP sequences are public and both sequences exactly match A/Hangzhou/1/2013.  The H7 and N9 sequences have synonymous changes (A1215C and T409C, respectively), which are also not present in other human or avian sequences, strongly supporting clonal expansion.

 

However, there is no reported contact between the two cases.  The earlier case is a chef who lived in Jiande, Hangzhou, but worked in Taicang, Jiangsu, while the second case was from the Jiangning District of Nanjing, Jiangsu, which is not near Taicang (see map).  The identity in the three sequences from cases without contact with each other strongly supports sustained human to human transmission, which is also supported by the presence of PB2 E627K in 6 of the 7 human cases (and absence in all five if the avian PB2 sequences).

 

This sustained transmission contradicts WHO statements, which rely on testing of upper respiratory tract samples, which have produced frequent false negatives.  In contrast to the negative data cited by WHO, the exact matches in the two cases above provides clear evidence for sustained human transmission. Release of a full set of sequences from the Jiangsu case would be useful (and quite doable since the sequences from the first three gene segments were from an egg isolate).

 

The WHO claims of no evidence of H2H transmission, and the failure to address the identities in the human H7N9, continue to raise serious pandemic concerns.

Media Link

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Avian influenza A(H7N9) in China

 

Since the last update of 26 August 2013, China has reported no new cases of human infection with avian

influenza A(H7N9) virus, but reported one death in a previously reported case. As of 7 October 2013, 135

human cases of influenza A(H7N9) virus infection were reported to WHO. Of these cases, 45 died. Most

human cases presented with pneumonia.

Most human A(H7N9) cases have reported contact with poultry or live animal markets. Knowledge about

the main virus reservoirs and the extent and distribution of the virus in animals remains limited and,

because it causes only subclinical infections in poultry, it is possible that the virus continues to circulate

in China and perhaps in neighboring countries. As such, reports of additional human cases and infections

in animals would not be unexpected, especially as the Northern Hemisphere autumn approaches.

Although four small family clusters have been reported among previous cases, evidence does not

support sustained human-to-human transmission of this virus.

Overall public health risk assessment for avian influenza A(H7N9) virus: Sporadic human cases and

small clusters would not be unexpected in previously affected and possibly neighboring areas/countries

of China. The current likelihood of community level spread of this virus is considered low.

 

Continued vigilance is needed within China and neighboring areas to detect infections in animals and

humans. WHO advises countries to continue surveillance and other preparedness actions, including

ensuring appropriate laboratory capacity. All human infections with non-seasonal influenza viruses such

as avian influenza A(H7N9) are reportable to WHO under the IHR (2005).

Current technical information as well as guidance related to avian influenza A(H7N9) can be found at

 

 

 

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The reason I'm posting about these "novel" viruses is that this is where the next probable pandemic could arise from. We are in a unique situation in this day and time to see viruses simmering in our population before they explode. This virus has a 33% fatality rate. If you compare that to the worst Pandemic to ever hit our population (The 1918 influenza) It had a fatality rate of 2.5%.... compare that to the normal fatality rate of regular influenza which is less than 1%

 

Obviously, these viruses cannot yet transmit readily from human to human, or we'd be highly aware of it. For a virus to be extraordinarly virulent, it MUST be able to put itself out into our popuation in large viral loads like our regular flu virus does. Neither MERS cOV nor H7N9 can do that yet. The more it adapts to humans, normally the less "lethal" it becomes.

 

But for survival purposes, in this day and time, it wont take a "lethal" virus to create havok in our society. THAT's what people don't understand. ANY new virus that sweeps across the world and puts the majority of the working class in bed for two weeks is going to create a huge economic crisis. Are you prepared to "bug IN" for a situation like that?

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As of February 14, 2014, the total number of cases JUST this year were 205, with 26 deaths. That's in less than two months

 

The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified H7N9 as "...an unusually dangerous virus for humans." Most of the cases resulted in severe respiratory illness, with a mortality rate of roughly 30 percent.

 

All cases have been in China. The virus still does not have sustained human to human transmisson. It can jump from a bird to a person and from that person to another close contact person, but no evidence of it being spread from the second host to a third host. But it's a flu virus and with every infection, the virus tweaks our immune response. Infected Birds show no symptoms. Not everybody in China who has caught this virus has had contact with poultry. So it's sketchy how they are getting it. The victims have been mostly male.

 

 

 

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Im not posative but I think thats what I had the other week....

 

~ I'm convinced you had 2009, pandemic H1N1. It's the dominant seasonal Strain of flu going around now. If you didn't catch it in 2009 when it made it's debut, you're at risk. Fortunately now you have a life long immunity to it.  :thumbup:

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~ The H7N9 virus out of Guangdong China is interesting because it only debuted a year ago, and already this year within two months it's taken a toll. To NOT be adapted to humans, it's certainly getting around fairly readily. In the movie Contagion, the Hollywood virus "Ironically" begins in Guangdong China as well. Maybe life DOES imitate art.

 

 

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