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The Danger of the Breakdown of Social Order

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Because it was discussed in depth on the forum.  Ferfal was also a guest of the podcast and did several interviews.  Really a good listen if your into podcasts.  I'd still like to read the book in it's entirety in a nice concise format, but it's just not worth that much to me.  To each his own.  ;)

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I here there are some places that have a community funded program that purchases books and makes them available to members of the community to borrow and read...

 

Maybe if you are really really good this year, Santa might help you out.

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I'm curios what everyone's opinion on the timelines would be.  Earlier I put up what I consider a realistic timeline of events post crash.  The thing is, it's an estimate based on what I've seen or read, (Both fictional and historical).  What kind of timelines does everyone else feel are pertinent to the subject?  Longer or shorter duration at various points. 

 

 

Also, more interestingly, what kind of timeline for rebuilding, getting back to a more normalized way of life post crash? 

 

 

It's happened before throughout history, but never with so much dependence on the modern systems in place.  I think it will make for a harder "Crash"  but I'm completely uncertain about the time to "Get back to normal" or "Get back to the new normal" whatever level that may be. 

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A world wide crash would be catastrophic.  Im not even sure if a monetary crash in this country would be survivable. Starvation most certainly would be rampant. A lot of groups concentrate on fire power to fight off starving hoards but that aint going to put food on the table for long.We watch the skies looking for asteroids but Im not sure how much faith we can put on that. We seem to be able to come up with cures for viruses as they happen so far. I dont believe any thing can be done to prepare for it may just delay it. I do think unless we can control exploding populations at some point we are going to find it harder to feed the masses but I hope thats way in the future for a 70 year old man like me. Unless some natural unforeseen disaster its going to be a long time coming I hope.   

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History has repeated itself many times, an educated guess would extrapolate data from those occurrences and make estimates.  Sure, it's not going to be a dead on accurate prediction, (Which nobody is asking for) but an educated guess is still feasible.  Any prediction of upcoming events is going to be an estimate.  But as Freud says, "Thought is action in rehearsal".  Many people thinking on the same subject with different points of view can probably come up with a fairly accurate estimation which can still help prepare for possible (and highly probable) future events.  We all prepare for events based on likelihood.  An economic collapse is a very likely scenario, well worth examining. 

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Have fun with that. lol All that you will do is argue and "debate" something want appear to be an expert in that is completely useless and irrelevant. History might be said to repeat itself but that is only in biased hindsight and it changes every time.

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I've already posted my thoughts, I was looking for others thoughts.  Alternate points of view, ideas I have not seen or considered.  Sorry that appears to be an issue for you.  ;)

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Considering 2 of the most likely and realistic survival scenarios we face are pandemic and economic decline or crash, this is a highly relevant survival topic that deserves to be explored. 

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I've already posted my thoughts, I was looking for others thoughts.  Alternate points of view, ideas I have not seen or considered.  Sorry that appears to be an issue for you.  ;)

No issue. The topic seems just way too broad for anything other than pure speculation.

 

For me, a more realistic approach is to plan for what it would take to survive at first, for a couple of hours to couple of days. During this time, you reassess the situation, then adjust your plans and actions accordingly based on how the situation evolves.  Even the weather can not be predicted accurately more than 36-48 hours in the future, so I highly doubt anything such as a societal and/or economic collapse (with considerably more variables) could be predicted with any more accuracy. Trying to plan for something you can not even pretend to predict, to me, sees like a waste of effort, but again, that is just my opinion.

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True, "Survival" is generally a short term item, to get past the initial immediate threat that generates a situation that requires us to survive.  Long range planning may not be an exact science, but it's served human beings quite well. 

 

 

Sure, we can't know what the exact situation is going to be and nobody is trying to predict the future, simply estimate and we can sure plan around likely scenarios.  Better to think about possibilities and work toward improvement than bury our head in the sand and only live minute to minute.  (Another survival/thrive technique).

 

 

I can't perfectly predict when or if someone is going to attack me. (It most likely will never happen), but I carry a defensive sidearm as a precaution because I can see the possibility even if it's not highly probable.  I don't have to predict the scenario accurately to have a rough estimation of what will need to be done.  Better to be prepared than not.  Economic collapse is the same thing, just on a larger scale.     

 

 

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Here are a couple of the questions that come to my mind when I'm looking at a pending economic collapse.

 

 

1.  How long will it take before currency becomes obsolete.  Will it be quickly, until store shelves are empty or will it be viable at a very high inflation for a longer period.  Like the old saying goes, "Cash is king, until it's not." 

 

 

2.  Alternate forms of currency.  Some people keep gold and silver as alternatives to cash for when currency goes out the window.  Is this really viable?  Long term I think it may be, because eventually things will start to return to a more normalized system and then the precious metals will most likely back currency again. However, I see an interim period, but no idea how long, where neither cash nor metals will be worth anything.  Then having resources like bullets, food, land, manual machinery, animals etc will be king for a time. 

 

 

I'll post other questions later when I have more time.

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True, "Survival" is generally a short term item, to get past the initial immediate threat that generates a situation that requires us to survive.  Long range planning may not be an exact science, but it's served human beings quite well. 

 

 

Sure, we can't know what the exact situation is going to be and nobody is trying to predict the future, simply estimate and we can sure plan around likely scenarios.  Better to think about possibilities and work toward improvement than bury our head in the sand and only live minute to minute.  (Another survival/thrive technique).

 

 

I can't perfectly predict when or if someone is going to attack me. (It most likely will never happen), but I carry a defensive sidearm as a precaution because I can see the possibility even if it's not highly probable.  I don't have to predict the scenario accurately to have a rough estimation of what will need to be done.  Better to be prepared than not.  Economic collapse is the same thing, just on a larger scale.     

 

 

To me, it is a waste of time and brain cells to try to plan for a specific scenario that is at best an uneducated guess.  I think it would make more sense to constantly be improving and expanding your skills and knowledge.  More importantly, learn how to learn and adapt those skills you have learned to your real life situation.

 

Personally, I don't give a rat's ass about how long currency lasts and think gold and silver is nothing more than shiny metal.  If someone is dumb enough to think shiny metal being pretty will be more valuable than food, tools or anything else useful, that is their problem, not mine, and I will use that to my advantage.

 

As well, if you believe I am simply burying my head in the sand, I'm good with your error in judgment. lol

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So what your saying is, it does not do anyone any good to purchase more than a weeks worth of food or have manual tools for maintaining their homestead etc.  Because they can't predict whats coming down the road.  Ok, gotcha, good luck with that. 

 

I believe it makes sense to plan longer term.  I also don't believe precious metals will be worth much for a long time, (maybe several years after the collapse) but as things settle back out and commerce starts flowing again beyond the simple person to person trading, then people will fall back on the stability of precious metals as a backing for currency.  Just makes sense considering humans have done so time and time again for thousands of years.  I don't advocate people buy gold and silver unless they have a tremendous amount of disposable income though.   

 

 

If you don't care about this subject why bother posting in it.  I'm sure not everyone shares your view that only the short term matters.  I'm not in life to survive the next 5 minutes or 5 days.  I'm in life to survive and thrive for the next 50 years no matter what comes.  If that takes some long term planing, and some discussions with people willing to postulate on it, great.  I'm willing to invest the time and energy to discuss it rather than poo poo on it.   

 

 

I don't think Swede started this thread to disparage the idea of sustainability and long term survival.  On the contrary it's a very thought provoking discussion.  As Swede said, "What ever the reason it is something to keep in mind. I have no idea what, if anything, we could do right now. Any ideas?". 

 

So lets look at ideas instead of degradation.

 

 

 

 

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Hoarding at first will be the money for bartering later. The things money can buy now will be the value later as things disappear. When you think about it store looting going on now will be survival after the crash or during the crash. I agree with Fat Guy most any thing will only be temporary in the long run. Our group will have a slight advantage because we are preparing for survival while most aren't.

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Once things settle down, do we see people working toward getting back to a more normalized society, or is it going to be mad max for the next 100 years?    Personally, once things start to settle out, I'd like to think people will slowly rebuild and work toward bettering themselves.  It's human nature. 

 

 

I can agree with the short term, I see the mad max lifestyle being short, it's not very sustainable for the most part, and those living the mad max lifestyle will be outnumbered and outgunned by larger groups working together trying to get back to a better life.  Again, not just surviving, but thriving. 

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Another question is.  Does anyone plan on doing more than just surviving day by day for the next 50 years?  Do we work toward a good community effort to help improve our chances of not only surviving the initial breakdown, but thriving after things die back down.  Or do we just survive the first couple weeks of the collapse and then what?  Play it by ear day to day until we die?  That is just too short sighted for me.  Every day we should be moving forward, not stagnating or falling back.  Again this is why community is so important.  The larger the group working together, the better off they will be.  Those roving biker zombies and mad max types won't last long against a well armed group.

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So what your saying is, it does not do anyone any good to purchase more than a weeks worth of food or have manual tools for maintaining their homestead etc.  Because they can't predict whats coming down the road.  Ok, gotcha, good luck with that. 

 

I believe it makes sense to plan longer term.  I also don't believe precious metals will be worth much for a long time, (maybe several years after the collapse) but as things settle back out and commerce starts flowing again beyond the simple person to person trading, then people will fall back on the stability of precious metals as a backing for currency.  Just makes sense considering humans have done so time and time again for thousands of years.  I don't advocate people buy gold and silver unless they have a tremendous amount of disposable income though.   

 

 

If you don't care about this subject why bother posting in it.  I'm sure not everyone shares your view that only the short term matters.  I'm not in life to survive the next 5 minutes or 5 days.  I'm in life to survive and thrive for the next 50 years no matter what comes.  If that takes some long term planing, and some discussions with people willing to postulate on it, great.  I'm willing to invest the time and energy to discuss it rather than poo poo on it.   

 

 

I don't think Swede started this thread to disparage the idea of sustainability and long term survival.  On the contrary it's a very thought provoking discussion.  As Swede said, "What ever the reason it is something to keep in mind. I have no idea what, if anything, we could do right now. Any ideas?". 

 

So lets look at ideas instead of degradation.

 

 

 

 

I didn't say that, you did.  I do find it amusing you you jump to conclusions and assumptions rather than reading what is posted.

 

You started with the feeble attempt at an insult (your head in the sand comment), I just laughed it off.

 

The obvious question:  How are you going to effectively plan for something, or anything for that matter, when you do not know what you are planning for?  At best, that gives a false sense of security which will be blown out of the water as soon as turmoil hits.  You will be left standing there (or lying there bleeding) saying "Hey, that's not what I planned for..."  lol

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Another question is.  Does anyone plan on doing more than just surviving day by day for the next 50 years?  Do we work toward a good community effort to help improve our chances of not only surviving the initial breakdown, but thriving after things die back down.  Or do we just survive the first couple weeks of the collapse and then what?  Play it by ear day to day until we die?  That is just too short sighted for me.  Every day we should be moving forward, not stagnating or falling back.  Again this is why community is so important.  The larger the group working together, the better off they will be.  Those roving biker zombies and mad max types won't last long against a well armed group.

You obviously have a set scenario in mind that you are planning for and are itching to "debate" anyone that bites to prove is the only right way to do things.  Ain't gonna work that way.  lol  You are trying to fit whatever happens into the plan you already have in place.  You don't get much mileage out of the horse pushing the cart. 

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I didn't say that, you did.  I do find it amusing you you jump to conclusions and assumptions rather than reading what is posted.

 

You started with the feeble attempt at an insult (your head in the sand comment), I just laughed it off.

 

The obvious question:  How are you going to effectively plan for something, or anything for that matter, when you do not know what you are planning for?  At best, that gives a false sense of security which will be blown out of the water as soon as turmoil hits.  You will be left standing there (or lying there bleeding) saying "Hey, that's not what I planned for..."  lol

 

 

That's the easy part, you don't have to know whats coming to plan and prepare for it.  Like the motto says.  "Be Prepared", not for any specific circumstances, but as Baden Powell said "For any ole thing".  Preparation doesn't have to have an end result.    Knowledge for example is preparation, skills are a preparation.  Bullets are a preparation. Other resources are a preparation.  You don't have to know exactly whats coming to be prepared.  ;) 

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You obviously have a set scenario in mind that you are planning for and are itching to "debate" anyone that bites to prove is the only right way to do things.  Ain't gonna work that way.  lol  You are trying to fit whatever happens into the plan you already have in place.  You don't get much mileage out of the horse pushing the cart.

 

 

Actually I have several plausible scenarios that I am not sure about at all.  Hence the reason to seek discussion on the subject.  I have seen what happened in other locations during these types of scenarios and wonder how it would be different here. 

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That's the easy part, you don't have to know whats coming to plan and prepare for it.  Like the motto says.  "Be Prepared", not for any specific circumstances, but as Baden Powell said "For any ole thing".  Preparation doesn't have to have an end result.    Knowledge for example is preparation, skills are a preparation.  Bullets are a preparation. Other resources are a preparation.  You don't have to know exactly whats coming to be prepared.  ;) 

I appreciate you restating my previous comments.  Thank you.

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