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The Danger of the Breakdown of Social Order

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Good info Razor. 

 

 

What about pemmican, has anyone ever made pemmican?  What kind of shelf life does it have?

 

 

 

I have. 2 year shelf life if its stored properly.

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Back to the original topic.  What are the key indicators there will be a breakdown of social order?  How do we recognize when things are getting bad enough that social order may go out the window.  As they say, "Chance favors the prepared mind".  As preppers and survivalists, I feel it's important to be able to recognize danger beyond our immediate surroundings.  If I had to hazard a guess,  I'd think the economic markers and inflation are going to be a good indicators.    When people are paying $5 or $6 for a loaf of bread (As unheard of as 20 years ago paying $4.00+ for an $.89 gallon of gas would be), but their wages have not increased to match it things are going to get worse and worse.  Then I'm willing to bet there will be some isolated "Incidents",  (trigger events, like maybe trucker strikes, or flash mobs looting etc).  Once the trigger events happen, it's going to snowball pretty quick.       

 

 

What other dangers or trigger events should be on the lookout for?  Are there any other warning signs that might help us know that stuff is about to get really bad?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I would be concerned with people thinking they would be able to predict the future...

 

"Therefore keep watch, because you do not know the day or the hour." Matthew 25:13

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Not trying to predict the future, trying to determine signs to look for that might help us avoid catastrophe. 

 

 

Similar to understanding the body language of someone your talking to to determine if they will become aggressive.  There are signs, it just takes some study to look for them.  Some are obvious, some are not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I guess the example would be, it's easy to know (And probably too late) to bug out when there are a group of looters coming down your street.  Your probably outnumbered, outgunned and don't have time to load your BOV with gear and head out. 

 

 

So what less obvious signs would indicate that the threat of social disorder and breakdown is imminent enough to go ahead and spend the next day, or week packing and prepping yourself to bug out.  The difference in the two might be jumping in the car with just the car kit and a bob or packing extra food, clothing (Depending on time of year) etc before driving out.

 

 

I don't want to be caught in the former situation, so I'd rather figure it out sooner and give myself more time to get to a safer location.  I have some ideas of what to look for, but other ideas and points of view could be very helpful.

 

 

 

 

 

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To me, it seem foolish trying to predict specific events and relate them to anything meaningful.  Kind of like when I was a stock broker. There would always be some "expert" blowing on about how they "predicted" the crash of '83 or some horsehit like that.  In reality, they might have said something similar to what happened, but that was mixed in with the 100's of other predictions that were not even in the ball park.

 

Let's go with this:  I predict it will rain on September 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30. There, I have just predicted, with 100% accuracy, which days it will rain in September.  (I didn't say I was going to tell you when it wasn't going to rain, now did I? lol)

 

In reality, it cannot be done.  Why? There are too many variables in the equation, many of which are unknown.  In algebra, I got really good at solving equations for 1 variable and later on for 2 (by limiting ranges).  Trying to solve an equation with an infinite number of possible outcomes using an infinite number of variables, all of which have infinite ranges is simply not possible.

 

Anyone that tries use specific events to try to predict the future is doing nothing more than building for them self, a false sense of security. Either they go nuts preparing for the socio/political/economic collapse next week that never comes, they let down their guard and get creamed when it does come along or they say "Hey, my predictors say this won't happen for another two years." and get clobbered when the asteroid hits that afternoon.

 

I approach this similar to trying to predict the weather.  (This is an analogy...) I am quite confident that in Iowa, when January and February roll around, it will get cold and we will get snow.  Do I try to guess that on January 18-19 we will get a huge blizzard and prepare accordingly (yeah, mark that down as a prediction...lol)? If I did that now, I am pretty sure I would look stupid and have wasted a considerable time, effort and other resources.  Instead, for me, it makes more sense to make the needed general preparations as you can based on the general trends to observe and be able to adapt to the specifics when they arrive.  Yes, keep watch and pay attention, but use your common sense.

 

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Not a problem, I'm not trying to predict a future event,  I'm trying to find warning signs that can help determine if it's pertinent to bug out or not. 

 

 

 

If I'm talking to someone, I can't predict if they are going to attack me.  However, I can observe their behavior and pick up on clues, mannerisms and behaviors (as well as outright actions and words) that could indicate they are about to attack.  I'm just using the same approach in this situation.  Asking for opinions on observations that could be helpful. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Ok, you just contradicted yourself on one paragraph....lol

 

"If I'm talking to someone, I can't predict if they are going to attack me.  However, I can observe their behavior and pick up on clues, mannerisms and behaviors (as well as outright actions and words) that could indicate they are about to attack.  "

 

Quite frankly, I agree with your concept (I think), but quit talking in circles.

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Play nice... 

 

I agree with you Doc about inflation rates increasing and increasing riots.  Extreme weather is another thing that I feel will also lead towards these issues arising.  If extreme weather is present, more looting is likely, which leads to more police involvement, then riots, etc.  Look at Katrina for example.  Another thing is hot summers, the warmer the weather, the more likely we are to see a riot.

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Good call on the weather.  People get hot they get cranky.    Also lack of clean water, so if sanitation and water availability goes south things get nasty in a hurry.

 

 

 

 

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People who are prepped are not out on the road looking for food and supplies during an emergency. They are not adding to the burden placed on stressed civil services. In the ice storm of '94 my neighbors broke out the chainsaws and cleared fallen trees so that the power and phone companies could get through the roads and go straight to the downed lines.

 

In the last big, snow storm we had here, the township autodialed everyone and said "emergency services are suspended until the storm is over" Good night, god bless, you are on your own. I live in a condo. My neighbors have two small children. My brother and I cleared the parking lot as best we could and cleared off their truck, so that they could get out faster if anything happened to the kids.

 

Cape May county NJ doesn't get enough snow fall in an average winter to have a real snow emergency plan. When we do get hit with a blizzard, like every 10 years, the county shuts down. Because of the proximity to the ocean, the snow is gone in a day and everything is back up and running. Hold that thought...

 

 

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I predicted last spring there would be a riot some where. Its a pressure cooker out there just under the radar. If the Grand Jury doesnt take the shooting to trial get ready. At what point does looting stop and survival begin? Before we all come to say looting is bad we may find our selves doing the same thing some day.

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I'm back.  :) I have sat in the ACME parking lot and watched people run in and out of the store prior to a major hurricane. This usually happens in the off season. Hurricane Floyd, Hurricane Sandy. Cape may County is a seashore area. By labor day the season is over. Irene happened the week prior to Labor day. Everyone who had rented a beach house had to scram by Friday. Irene came on Sunday early AM. Everyone scheduled to come in Saturday had to wait until Monday to get back in.

 

There was a mountain of I want. "I want compensation because I couldn't stay in my house for the full week, I don't care if a class 4 hurricane just missed destroying the lower half of the state. No one matters but ME! Ugly, selfish behavior just for being inconvenienced . Imagine what would happen if they had no food, water or medical supplies. 

 

This is not a rant about NJ tourists, but my observations on human behavior based on my own experiences during that particular event. There were also many people who were patient and civil.

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I've never been to Texas, or Iowa or lived in New York City so I have no clue how people actually behave when the power goes out. I know what happens here, in my neck of the woods. I know that snow storms screw things up and hurricanes happen every year. I can account for these things when I plan.

 

I know that the local grocery stores get cleaned out in September when a big storm is coming. Again, this happens after labor day. I have never experienced a hurricane in late July/ early August which is the height of tourist season on the shore. It could happen.

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Our local community has been very genial and helpfull during long term emergenies like  ice storm multi week power outages.    Can't say they will  stay that way during a longer term more widespead breakdown though.

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In our area, in an emergency, we end up going around checking on the older people or those who might need help. Most of the community pull together quickly. People living in the country have a different attitude when things like that happen. You end up helping people you don't even know.

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Maybe its time to revisit the break down of social order by looking again at the events that have occurred in St. Louis. One thing has become clear that riots and demonstrations get out of control quickly and it appears heavy handed control ends up being shot at by police and the National Guard and the combatants. As a survivor it will be my decision to get the hell out of there and return to my property and defend myself from there if need be. Survival isnt a safe place there and I have no intention of choosing any side but my own. So much has been said about the looting that takes place but in a nation wide break down of social order would you see your self joining the looters if you were starving?

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That's what bothers me the most, this is just a bunch of people doing crap just "For the fun of it" and they all get to go home when it's done.  Now imagine if these people are actually starving.  How much worse would it get?    But Yeah, I'm in to total agreement, stay away from population centers.  Stay home and defend to the best of my ability while preparing to bug out if need be.  (Or bug out if I have enough info to decide it's dangerous enough not to stay).  The whole idea behind being prepared is to reduce dependency.  The prepared person doesn't have to worry about how much water and bread are at the store, they can concentrate on monitoring the environment around them and making decisions as necessitated by the environment and circumstances.

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I heard that Fat Guy and I guess the cops did the same. This thread is about avoiding getting involved in any thing that could be life threatening.

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I heard that Fat Guy and I guess the cops did the same. This thread is about avoiding getting involved in any thing that could be life threatening.

I think the best course of action would be to put some distance between you and the stupidity.

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That would be my plan. With so many people thinking a train wreck is coming I wonder if their right. Im sort of prepared out this way for a time. If you remember when trade deals and "a giant sucking sound" as jobs moved south. They knew at the time we could not compete with third world countries for jobs and their wages would not go up so ours would go down. Is there hope on the horizon? I just dont see my girls and my grand kids having the same chances as I did.

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